First, a couple of newsletter notes—last week’s post (“What If We Were Wrong About Radio”) was by far the most widely-read thing I’ve written on Substack. This doesn’t necessarily compel me to write more about radio or Clubhouse in the future (we’ll have that little talk on the flaws of “A/B testing” later) but I am grateful for all of the nice emails I received, and for those who bought me a coffee after reading it. Also, this will be (the good Lord willing and the creek don’t rise) the final newsletter I send out via Substack. The next one you receive will be from a different system (you won’t have to do anything else on your end.) I had hoped to have my new platform in place today, but like Mike Tyson once said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. Next week’s newsletter will be delivered in a manner that will enable me to send you exclusive, email-only content without your paying a subscription, which has always been my goal.
In fact, exclusive content is exactly what I want to talk about today. You may have seen a recent YouGov/Variety study about the percentage of listeners who would pay for a podcast, here rather breathlessly reported as Pay For Podcasts? No Thanks, Most Listeners Still Say. I want to introduce you to a sinister word that researchers do not generally use, but is typically inserted after the fact for editorial purposes: “just” (or its cousin, “only.”) See how it is used in the article linked above: “A new survey by YouGov and Variety finds just 16% of those surveyed said it is either ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ likely they will pay or donate money to access a podcast in the next 12 months” (emphasis mine.) I encourage you to mentally remove the word “just” from that headline, and then see how you process it. If 16% of podcast listeners would like to pay me a dollar, I could buy Taylor Swift’s apartment and park my Bugatti Chiron in the garage next to the unicorn I’ve always wanted.
Still, podcasting’s efforts to charge for exclusive content have been spotty. I am not going to pile on to Luminary here—I think people have been quick to read their stumbles as a referendum on the viability of the subscription podcast content model. Instead, I encourage you to think about some of the names who launched original podcasts on Luminary: Trevor Noah, Bill Simmons, Guy Raz. What do they all have in common? It’s an I Hear Things Quiz! Answers below.
OK, I won’t make you wait. The answer is that all of those names may have created exclusive content for Luminary, but those humans weren’t exclusive to Luminary. You could get your Trevor Noah or Guy Raz or Bill Simmons fix elsewhere—on other podcasts, even. Luminary’s failure to gain traction with this initial stable of personalities wasn’t so much a rejection of the viability of the subscription podcast model as it was a rejection of the notion of exclusive content being the driver of value.
In fact, I don’t think exclusive content is the driver of value for podcasts.
But…content is king, isn’t it? Well, death to the patriarchy. I did a Google search for “content is king.” Look—nearly three billion results, starting with Bill Gates in 1996:
It’s a cliché. And there is ample evidence in the world of podcasting that it simply isn’t the case. Name this podcast: interesting person interviews interesting person about their interesting job. It’s another I Hear Things Quiz! Answers on pages 2 through 1,500,000 of this newsletter. “Interesting person interviews interesting person” is not a show. Replace “interesting person” with Dax Shepard? That’s a show. Not because Dax is a celebrity—many people only knew him previously as Kristen Bell’s husband. But it turns out he is really good as a podcast host, and that's why Armchair Expert is one of the top 20 most listened-to podcasts in America. Dax is more than a celebrity. He is a Personality. Personality-with-a-capital-P is the difference between “a show about the off-stage life of a comic” being Seinfeld or The Jackie Thomas Show.
For podcasting, content is not King, or Queen, or Monarch. Personality is.
Personality, and not celebrity. Magic Johnson, Chevy Chase, Queen Latifah, and John McEnroe all had celebrity, and all failed at their own talk shows. The list of celebrities who have failed at putting on a show is pretty long, actually. But the woman who, fresh from a supporting actress role 1985’s The Color Purple, developed the highest-rated talk show in American history? Now she’s a Personality. Personality is rare.
Now, if you accept my assertion that the atomic unit of value for a podcast is not content, but Personality, then by extension access to exclusive content is not a significant value driver. Exclusive content from a Personality is a bonus—a lagniappe, as they would say in New Orleans. An extra beignet on your plate. At Café du Monde you get an extra beignet on your plate, but there are other places to get beignets. Beignets exist. Café du Monde could charge me a little more maybe, for their version, presented where and how they present it. But they can’t keep me from getting a beignet.
Joe Rogan is one such beignet. Last December, the Joe Rogan Experience went fully behind the walled garden of Spotify as original, exclusive content. His show is not measured by the leading download ranking services, but it is a fair assumption that downloads to the JRE would necessarily go down once it went exclusive to Spotify—to believe otherwise would be to believe that everyone who previously listened to the show on Apple, or Google, or watched it on YouTube, would immediately migrate to another platform to listen to the show. Some did, surely (and more may in the future), but there is always an audience trade-off for exclusivity.
While downloads to the JRE show have surely taken a hit, I can tell you for a certainty that the reach of Joe Rogan, JRE show host, has not. In fact, it is as large as it ever has been, despite the fact that you can no longer listen to the JRE on Apple Podcasts. Why is that? The answer is that the Joe Rogan Experience show may be exclusive to Spotify, but Joe Rogan, human, is surely not. The full JRE show no longer lives on YouTube, for example. But guess what does? Clips. Multiple clips, every day, of the highlights of the show, as you can see here:
Each day, Rogan is putting up 3-5 clips of the highlights of his show, ranging anywhere from five to fifteen minutes or more, and some of those clips have been seen over a million times. Ironically, a ten-minute clip from last month of Rogan reflecting on his move to Spotify has received over 1.6 million views--on YouTube.
While the JRE is exclusive to Spotify, Joe Rogan is not—and though his most ardent fans will continue to listen to the full show on Spotify, it’s not hard to imagine the most casual fans of Joe Rogan getting their fill from these highlight clips on YouTube, which may not deliver the Joe Rogan Experience but surely deliver the experience of Joe Rogan.
Contrast this with the case of Howard Stern. When Stern signed his deal with SiriusXM, he instantly became the highest-paid radio host in America—and still is—but of course his audience declined. When he truly went behind the paywall at SiriusXM, he also stopped being the topic of water cooler conversations at the office, if our younger readers recall those. He largely disappeared from the public eye. It’s one of the reasons why, I am convinced, Stern got involved with America’s Got Talent—I think he needed some form of public outlet to remind the world who he is, or his overall value might diminish in the future. But you didn’t get The Howard Stern Show or anything like it on AGT—he was just another funny judge. You could only get capital-P Personality Howard Stern by subscribing to SiriusXM. His show wasn’t just exclusive content—Stern became an exclusive Personality. If you want that beignet, you are going to pay for it. And as I have often said here and elsewhere, Stern is one of the two or three greatest interviewers alive. A beignet worth paying for.
I’ll close by saying that I am confining this discussion to podcasts, and not to streaming video or network TV or anything else that has a different relationship to our brain than a voice between our ears. I firmly believe that there is a viable subscription model for podcasting. But there is a difference between truly exclusive content, and…well, just “different content.” That difference is Personality, and that is the true monarch of the podcasting realm.
I’ll see you next week, hopefully in your inbox as usual. As I mentioned, I’ll never charge for this newsletter, but a cup of coffee is always welcome.
Photo credit: by Flickr photographer hamron / harmon - https://www.flickr.com/photos/mookies/2452009929/, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=4142967. I ate the top one. Sorry.